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Electric cars - the race is on - Page 9
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  1. #81
    Join Date
    Jun 2005


    Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales to Exceed 17 million by 2020 as ‘Range Anxiety’ Lessens

    Tesla Ranked as Leading Electric Vehicle Manufacturer

    Hampshire, UK – 8th March 2016: A new study from Juniper Research forecasts that nearly 17 million hybrid and electric vehicles will be on the road by 2020, up from an estimated 12 million last year.
    Juniper believes that stakeholders primarily need to establish the viability and desirability of electric vehicles with consumers, and adopt an aggressive ‘go to market’ strategy that includes:
    1. The rolling out of a wide-scale public charging infrastructure – that is seen as both ongoing and committed.
    2. Improving vehicle battery life and range per charge.
    3. Conducting effective consumer education campaigns, with attractive incentives to change.

    Tesla & Chevrolet Lead the Charge on Vehicle Range

    The new research, Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: Consumer and Commercial Markets’, found that electric car manufacturers are prioritising ‘range’ as the key issue. OEMs, such as Tesla and Chevrolet understand that ‘range anxiety’ is the greatest hindrance to the adoption of electric vehicles. In order to meet the expectations of the combustion engine vehicle market, Tesla and Chevrolet have focused their efforts towards ensuring that their models’ mileage range can exceed 200 miles on a fully charged vehicle. Who leads the Electric Vehicle Market?

    Juniper Research ranked the top 5 electric vehicle manufacturers, scoring them on five key factors: Vehicle range (EPA rated mileage (Environmental Protection Agency)); Vehicle sales; Infrastructure implementation; Time spent in development and deployment; Future plans and innovation.
    The top ranked manufacturers were:
    1. Tesla
    2. BMW
    3. Nissan
    4. Chevrolet
    5. Ford

    Tesla, an OEM solely manufacturing electric vehicles, scored highly with strong sales, superior mileage range and firm commitment to their Tesla Supercharge scheme. Whilst BMW and Nissan have witnessed high sales, their electric vehicle capabilities lag behind Tesla.
    Consumer Confidence & Education - Critical

    Additionally, the research highlighted the urgent need to invest in consumer education focusing on the capabilities and benefits of electric vehicles, as well the need for an aggressive investment plan to install public charging outlets on all major routes. It recommended that OEMs take an active role in this education process, investing in campaigns to communicate the capabilities and benefits of electric vehicles in order for them to be viewed as a real alternative to combustion engines.

    The complimentary whitepaper, ‘Electric Vehicles Going the Extra Mile, is now available to download from the Juniper website together with further details of the full research.

    The report forms part of Juniper’s ongoing analysis of Automotive & Connected Car Technology and is now available to download from the Juniper Research website.

    Juniper Research provides research and analytical services to the global hi-tech communications sector, providing consultancy, analyst reports and industry commentary.

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Jun 2005


    Future powertrains: Radical new end game
    ByDr Peter Harrop, Chairman, IDTechEx
    This article shares some of the market research carried out for the brand new IDTechEx report, “Future Powertrains2016-2036”. Put at its simplest, the main powertrain options for land vehicles over the next twenty years are as follows:
    -Conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) driving the wheels through a transmission
    -Hybrid electric meaning an electric motor drives the wheels most or all of the timewith the aid of a fuelled engine and transmission
    -Pure electric meaning with no fuelled engine on board, the traction being entirely by electric motor using on-board sources of electricity and minimal transmission
    However, there is more to it than this, with new variants becoming practicable. We now repeat these basics giving more detail.

    Source: IDTechEx Research report, "FuturePowertrains 2016-2036" (www.IDTechEx.com/powertrains).

    New focus for improvement and choice

    In the coming decades the improvement and choice of land vehicle powertrain will mainly be dictated by emissions conformance at best cost/ performance compromise not independently performance, cost and fuel economy as in the past. By cost we embrace upfront cost, cost of ownership and resale price issues.This will result in popularity moving from conventional to pure electric as laws tighten and technology improves.

    Pure electric is already the norm for most small land e-vehicles such as electric bicycles, mobility for the disabled, scooters, e-tuktuks, e-rickshaws and other micro EVs, such as “quadricycle” homologation in Europe. Other examples are indoor forklifts and electric airport Ground Support Equipment GSE. Some are already large markets not to be confused with cars homologated as such. For example, Terra Motors of Japan makes the three wheeled micro EVs and when we interviewed them in Japan they told us that Bangladesh alone is importing 500,000 yearly from China and, in India, the ICE three wheeler replacement potential is over five million. The Philippines, with 3.2 million taxi tuk-tuks to replace due to extreme pollution has just announced that it will put one million EVs on its roads very soon. Over 70% of golf cars are already pure electric, the rest being internal combustion not hybrid. Continuing this progress, many microcars are jumping directly from ICEto pure electric.

    New end game

    Compared to previous understanding of the subject, significant “new” powertrain arrivals identified in our latest research are 48V Mild Hybrids (MH) (set to replacemuch conventional ICE and non-plug-in strong hybrid) and energy independent vehicles (EIV), the new end game. The Immortus car currently fundraising for manufacture in Australia is an example of an EIV as is the NFH-H tourist microbus already on sale in China. Both rely on unusually efficient, large areas of photovoltaics for power and nothing else. Indeed, the tourist bus is available without battery in ultra-light lizard mode, waking with the daylight.Yes, the end game is even more radical than we thought and we can glimpse itnow.

    EIVs may be headed to a multibillion dollar business in 10-15 years, mimicking the EIV airships and planes that stay aloft for 5-10 years, already the subject of billions of dollars investment by NASA, Facebook,Google etc. today. EIV powertrain impact will be huge from enabling the Third World and remote communities to defense. EIV land vehicles could be a $250 billion business in 20-30 years. They will be significant long before that in(a) spawning new technologies useful in many types of vehicle (rather like Formula One today). Indeed, the world record breaking Nuon Solar Team from the Netherlands, with their solar racers crossing Australia fastest, has already spawned five startups and other solar racers have set records for photovoltaics and motor efficiency on land vehicles. Meanwhile, we are moving from range anxiety to range excess with PEVs as we await “unlimited” range of EIVs. Will the Nanoflowcell pure electric hypercar really have over 1000 miles range asclaimed this year? If not, one certainly will one day.

    Newly low cost route to EV

    At the other extreme of making existing ICE powertrains have three electric modes – silent take-off, creeping in traffic and maintained-speed “active” coasting – we have the 48V mild hybrid. It is the lowest cost route to an electric vehicle at the larger C and D sizes of car and larger vehicles such as vans, trucks and buses. Following first series production in 2017, and even then not yet in EV form, it is possible that 48V mild hybrids will peak at over $250 billion in yearly sales before pure electric takes over because currently they look to be the only low cost way that manufacturers can meet the tough 2030 emissions legislation with minimal hassle, not because they are a “poor man’s EV” though that will help to sell them as will the fuel economy.

    Common enablers

    Certain enabling technologies are common to most or all of the powertrain configurations we identify as commercially important over the coming twenty years beyond the ubiquitous internal combustion engine usually with stop-start. These include new reversing electric machines, power electronics and lithium-ion batteries. However, it is misleading to say, as some have done in 2016, that this removes risk from powertrain choice. For example, a downsized, down-speeded ICE for a 48V MH is managing huge load variations as primary traction whereas one used as a range extender, simply charging a battery when needed, may be at almost constant, gentle torque and revolutions – a completely different, far simpler design. The same is true of a reversing electric machine (the modern equivalent of a traction motor, alternator and starter) for a 48V mild hybrid vs one for a pure electric vehicle with much tougher traction requirements and no starter function. The one in a pure electric vehicle will increasingly get much of its charge from multiple energy harvesting and regeneration not the motor going backwards as with regenerative braking. Nevertheless, a trend to more than one reversing electric machine per vehicle is seen from 48VMH right through strong hybrids to pure electric powertrains.

    Facilitating change and disruption

    Facilitating the above-mentioned priorities in design of the land vehicles of the future are certain approaches to powertrains such as lightweighting, size reduction, cost reduction, improvement in reliability, safety, life and so on.

    We show how much of this will be tackled disruptively, for example by structural electronics and new components such as GaAs photovoltaics or GaN power semiconductors sometimes removing the need for water cooling. The Li-ion battery will be completely reinvented with new anodes, cathodes and non-flammable electrolytes possibly removing the need for some safety sensors and electronics and possibly making them suitable for molding into load-bearing structures, saving weight,space and reducing the cooling requirement. Supercapacitors, being electrostatic and not moving at all are first candidates for this however. New systems will be added such as regenerative active suspension, high powercharging, inductive charging interfaces and Vehicle to Grid V2G electronics on-board becoming part of the powertrain. One worry is that that long term testing becomes useless if the original component in any of these has been withdrawn or redesigned radically on the production line while testing is carried out.

    Forecasting now becomes very difficult indeed becauseone is estimating such things as unpredicatable politicians and their subsidiesand inventions yet to be made. Add to that deciding whether cars will be mainlyrental, throttling market growth or not or mainly autonomous, making the powertrain a commodity in the view recently expressed by Porsche Engineering.However, someone has to try and IDTechEx forecasts EVs, hybrid and pure electric, in 46 categories and runs scenarios. Here is one.
    Possible scenario of number of cars sold globally that are conventional ICE vs mild hybrid, with several pure electric modes in later years. We see an eventual collapse in sales of both as mainstream pure electric vehicles take over when they are the most attractive and affordable option in the view of most mainstream buyers.

    Source:IDTechEx Research report, "Future Powertrains 2016-2036" (www.IDTechEx.com/powertrains).

    In addition to these forecasts a new and detailed roadmap is presented in the brand new IDTechEx Research report "
    Future Powertrains2016-2036", covering both technology and market development. IDTechEx tables and info graphics pull together the analysis makingit easy to absorb. No one else has this level of detail. Uniquely, IDTechEx presents a bigger picture of opportunity than that addressed by other observersand participants. The future is very different from that commonly portrayed and much more exciting.
    Last edited by Admin; 04-02-2016 at 02:33 PM.

  3. #83
    Join Date
    Jun 2005


    Here comes the next key enabling technologyfor electric vehicles
    by Dr PeterHarrop, Chairman, IDTechEx

    The new IDTechEx Research report, ElectricVehicle Energy Harvesting/ Regeneration 2017-2037 explains andforecasts the technologies involved in this newly key enabling technology.Electric vehicles are creating more and more of their own electricity fromdaylight, wind and other sources including regeneration. Regeneration convertswasted heat and movement in the vehicle into electricity, as with a turbine inthe exhaust. More elegantly, regeneration prevents wasted heat and movement inthe first place as with regenerative suspension giving a better ride and longerrange and flywheels and reversing motors replacing burning brake disks. Shockabsorbers can create electricity that controls them to give a smoother ride.Yes, it does make sense. Indeed it is the future.

    Existing key enabling technologies willmove over within the decade to add the new one - energy harvesting includingregeneration. Within 20 years it will become a huge business as tens ofmillions of vehicles yearly are made as energy independent vehicles (EIV) thatget all their electricity without plugging in. The report explains manynew EH technologies coming along including triboelectrics, thermalmetamaterials, affordable GaAs photovoltaics and dielectric elastomernanogenerators. With these, energy harvesting will become the most important EVtechnology of all. Increasingly the energy companies and charging networks willbe bypassed completely by the land, water and airborne vehicles starting toappear now. We reveal the significance of breakthroughs by little known vehicleand material companies such as Hanergy, Inergy, Sunnyclist, Sion, Nanowinn, SBLand others as we interview them from Greece to China, Australia to Canada andthe UK.

    We give many examples to explain whymulti-mode energy harvesting is recommended as it reduces and sometimeseliminates the need for those expensive, bulky, heavy batteries that do notlast long enough. We show how even multi-mode harvesting e-textiles are inprospect from car seats to tires. The report is supported by detailedtechnological roadmaps and forecasts of electric vehicles in 46 categoriesembracing on-road and off-road, on-water and underwater, manned and unmannedversions. When you look at this big picture, the potential for both technologyand vehicle suppliers is far greater than it first seems to be. This is thefirst report to look at all the technologies and all of the vehicles that willadopt them. It is authoritative: for example we just had extended discussionswith Toyota on the subject when we accepted invitations to present to them inboth the USA and Japan. The PhD level IDTechEx analysts are mostlymulti-lingual and they are strategically placed in the Japan, the USA, Germany,the UK and elsewhere and they all travel intensively. IDTechExeventson the subject – including the largest in the world on energyharvesting– give us the inside track too.

    Thereport is in the form of over 160 detailed Powerpoint pages mainly as newinfograms clarifying the complexities and the future of both the technologiesand the vehicles using the technologies with frank assessment revealing thepromise for the future, the achievement now and the dead ends. The formatof the report is an executive summary and conclusions sufficiently comprehensiveto be read on its own, an introduction explaining terminology and options,chapters on the most promising technologies now and in the future –electrodynamic, photovoltaic, triboelectric, dielectric elastomer generator,thermoelectric and piezoelectric. It is shown how some are being proved inapplications such as wave power but vehicle applications are in the roadmapssuch as tires, sails, boat hulls and airship fabric that generate electricityand how many will combine into structural electronics. Components-in-a-boxgives way to more reliable, more compact, lighter weight smart structuralmaterials. It is all here.

    For more see www.IDTechEx.com/ehforev.

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